skip to Main Content

Do Third-Party Candidates Stand a Chance This Election?

As the U.S. government and its presidential candidates continue to support Israel’s aggression in Gaza, voters are looking for alternative options this election. 

Many pro-Palestine officials and activists are supporting third-party candidate Jill Stein, who was arrested at a pro-Palestine protest on April 27, and independent candidate Cornel West, who has also shown support for Palestine.  

A recent Pew Research Center poll revealed that U.S. voters view President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as “embarrassing,” and are dissatisfied with the 2024 presidential campaign

Now, all eyes are on the minor-party contenders who could potentially disrupt Democrats and Republicans in an election expected to be decided by a narrow margin. 

The main challenge is the third-party candidates’ ability to get their names on state ballots. 

State Ballots: How Do They Work? 

U.S. laws have made it difficult and expensive for independent and third-party candidates to get their names on state ballots. 

They are required to collect an overwhelming number of signatures from residents who have decided to switch parties or want to register for the first time. 

According to a Reuters article, a minor-party candidate needs to collect 75,000 signatures in California, and an independent candidate needs around 219,000 signatures in a 105-day period starting from April. 

Another tough state is Texas, where independent candidates need to collect 113,151 signatures in a 70-day period that started on May 13. Voters who took part in the Republican or Democratic presidential primary elections, however, are disqualified from signing a petition to switch parties.  

A third-party or independent candidate gains political legitimacy and qualifies to appear on the debate stage if his or her name is included on the ballot in enough states to conceivably win the Electoral College. 

All current contenders failed to reach the first debate. 

The Current Independent and Third-Party Candidates

  • Jill Stein 

This is the third time Jill Stein has run for president under the Green Party. In 2016, she received nearly 1.4 million votes, and was blamed by democrats for Hillary Clinton’s loss against Trump. 

In her campaign video, she said the two-party political system is “broken” and called to put “a pro-worker, anti-war, climate emergency agenda front and center in this election and on the ballot across the country.” 

Stein, a physician, has condemned Israel’s assault on Gaza since October and has criticized President Biden for failing to stop Israel’s “genocidal rampage.”  

The 73-year-old candidate, her campaign manager, and deputy campaign manager were arrested at a pro-Palestine encampment at the  Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri, on April 27. She posted the video of the arrest on X. 

  • Cornel West

West is a progressive activist and scholar who has also received attention for his support of Palestine. He called on the International Criminal Court (ICJ) to investigate Israel’s war crimes, and has spoken at pro-Palestine protests and encampments. 

In a statement on X, West said he is running for president as an independent candidate because he wants to “end the iron grip of the ruling class.” 

“People are hungry for change,” he said. “They want good policies over partisan politics. We need to break the grip of the duopoly and give power to the people.”

  • Robert Kennedy Jr. 

Kennedy’s uncle, John F. Kennedy, was the 35th president of the U.S. The conservative figure is the most popular independent candidate and holds similar views to Republicans. He is a staunch supporter of Israel. 

Kennedy is an anti-vaccine activist who was condemned for his conspiracy theories about COVID-19. He is expected to hurt Republicans more than Democrats this election. 

Barbara Perry, director of presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, told USA Today that Kennedy will attract those who are hesitant to vote for Trump, but “believe generally in his policies in a conspiratorial kind of way.”

  • Chase Oliver

At 39 years old, Oliver is the youngest candidate in the election. 

He is running under the Libertarian Party and has reportedly described himself as “armed and gay.” Oliver is an anti-war activist who catered to young voters angry about Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“We were looking at who are the most likely populations to be ready to go outside of the two-party system, and we’ve identified young people, and in particular those who are upset with the war going on in Gaza, upset with the immigration crisis, and upset with cost of living,” Oliver told Politico. “Those are the young people that we’re going to target.”

Third-party Candidates in Past Elections

A Pew Research Center report indicated that Kennedy is “polling in the mid-single digits” nationally and has received support from both Democratic and Republican voters. This was contrary to both Biden and Trump’s campaign calculations.

The center suggested, however, that Kennedy’s numbers will eventually drop. They examined six presidential elections throughout history, finding that independent and third-party candidates’ ratings tend to be higher at the start of their campaigns and lower at the end.

“Not only did support for third-party and independent candidates tend to decline over the course of their campaigns, but their vote shares often came in lower than polls suggested they might,” the center said. 

George Wallace (1968)

For example, third-party candidate George Wallace, who was running under the American Independent Party, saw an increase in support in polls over the spring and summer leading up to the 1968 election.

Almost 10 percent of voters supported Wallace in April, and the numbers had doubled by September. 

“Wallace appeared within reach of his goal: dividing the field enough to throw the election to the House of Representatives, where he could try to bargain his electoral votes for ‘concessions’ on desegregation, voting rights and other issues,” the report says.

In the fall, Republican Richard Nixon’s campaign warned conservatives that a vote for Wallace would aid Democrat Hubert Humphrey. 

Over time, Wallace’s number of supporters began to decrease. He received 13.5 percent of the popular vote and 46 electoral votes, but that was not enough to keep Nixon from winning the presidency.

Ross Perot (1992)

In another example from 1992, billionaire businessman Ross Perot collected hundreds of thousands of petition signatures and made appearances on Larry King Live as an independent candidate.

At one point, he led both Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Bill Clinton, but still fell short despite having no problems with “money and visibility.”

“In March, as Perot’s backers began gathering the hundreds of thousands of petition signatures he would need to get on state ballots, Perot was regularly receiving support from 20 percent or more of registered voters in polls,” the report states. 

Attacks from Democrats and Republicans, however, led Perot’s numbers to fall. He quit the race in mid-July because his ratings were below 20 percent in most polls.

Even though he was no longer campaigning, Perot’s name remained on two dozen state ballots and some of his staunch supporters continued efforts to put his name on more state ballots.

Perot won 18.9 percent of the popular vote, which was the highest rating achieved by an independent candidate since Theodore Roosevelt.

He reportedly spoiled the 1992 election for Bush, who was running against Clinton. 

Biden’s Endorsement of Kamala Harris

Following President Biden’s historic decision to drop out of the 2024 race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for presidency, Americans are now debating whether Harris is a suitable replacement for Biden.

Democrats are now faced with the dilemma of voting for a candidate whose policies, especially in relation to Palestine, will not be different from that of Biden’s.

At the same time, history has proven that it is nearly impossible to break free from the two party system that dominates American politics.

If you value our journalism…

TMJ News is committed to remaining an independent, reader-funded news platform. A small donation from our valuable readers like you keeps us running so that we can keep our reporting open to all! We’ve launched a fundraising campaign to raise the $10,000 we need to meet our publishing costs this year, and it’d mean the world to us if you’d make a monthly or one-time donation to help. If you value what we publish and agree that our world needs alternative voices like ours in the media, please give what you can today.

Author

  • Zahraa Abbas

    Zahraa Abbas is a Muslim American journalist who aims to dismantle euphemized and dehumanizing language targeting marginalized communities by redefining the terms and interrogating U.S. domestic and international affairs as well as mainstream media. She has a bachelor’s degree in English with a minor's in journalism and psychology from the University of Michigan, a master’s degree in English, and an MFA in creative writing.

Back To Top