The United States’ potential recognition of Somaliland as an independent state has been tied to its strategic interests in countering Chinese influence in East Africa. Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the fall of Siad Barre’s regime but remains unrecognized internationally. Recognition could provide the U.S. with a foothold in the Horn of Africa, enhancing its ability to monitor Chinese activities in Djibouti, where Beijing has its only overseas military base, as well as track arms flows and instability in the Gulf of Aden. It would also allow the U.S. to better monitor the activities of the Yemen Armed Forces, led by Ansarallah, who are currently imposing a Red Sea blockade on Israeli-linked ships in support of Gaza.

Under the Trump administration, there was momentum toward recognizing Somaliland, spurred by its democratic strides and strategic location. Some analysts suggested this recognition would align with Trump’s policy of confronting China’s expanding influence. Bashir Goth, head of Somaliland’s mission in Washington, expressed optimism about improved U.S.-Somaliland relations should Trump return to power. However, Trump lost the 2020 election, and the Biden administration continued the Obama-era policy of supporting Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Recent developments have complicated Somaliland’s aspirations. Turkey has brokered peace between Somalia and Ethiopia after disputes over Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland to use its Berbera Port for trade. This reconciliation, celebrated in Ankara, undermines Somaliland’s position since Ethiopia’s reliance on Berbera was a cornerstone of its bid for independence. Additionally, Somalia’s federal government has revoked the port deal, further isolating Somaliland.

Proponents of Somaliland’s recognition argue that it could serve as a counterbalance to China in East Africa. Still, the broader international community, including the African Union, maintains support for a united Somalia. Somaliland’s ambitions remain inextricably linked to regional politics, particularly Ethiopia’s stance and U.S. strategic priorities in the region. Whether the U.S. will shift its position may depend on changing dynamics in East Africa and the broader contest with China.