On Jan. 9, 2025, Lebanon’s presidential vacuum finally came to an end.

Joseph Aoun, the former commander of the Lebanese Army was elected president of Lebanon after over two years of a void filling this position, and several failed attempts to elect a president in the parliament.

Backed by the U.S., Lebanon’s new president was voted in after the ceasefire agreement went into effect in November 2024, ending a two-month all-out Israeli aggression on Lebanon.

External pressure had increased during the months preceding his election, and several Lebanese political parties close to the U.S. agreed to vote for Aoun after having rejected him as a candidate for the presidency before.

Hezbollah and Amal’s Endorsement of Aoun

Hezbollah and the Amal movement (the “Shia duo”) originally refused Aoun as a candidate in favor of their ally, Suleiman Frangieh. After internal disputes intensified in rejection of Frangieh, the duo expressed their willingness to cooperate for the national benefit. 

Frangieh himself stepped down, as the possibility of attaining the needed number of votes proved to be impossible.

Many saw the compromise made by Hezbollah and Amal to be the result of the weakening of Hezbollah after several blows, including the pager attacks and the assassination of its leadership figures, most prominently Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

However, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Kassem reiterated the party’s willingness to cooperate and negotiate for the sake of the country.

During Aoun’s election process, which was completed in two rounds, Hezbollah and Amal did not cast their votes during the first round. This move prevented Aoun from gaining the needed number of votes to win. 

In doing so, Hezbollah and Amal intended to send a message: that a Lebanese president cannot be elected without the votes and approval of these two parties, which are also constituents of the state, after attempts to marginalize them during and after the war. 

Hezbollah and Amal cast their votes in Aoun’s favor in the second round, resulting in his victory.

Aoun Becomes President

In his inauguration speech, Aoun vowed to work on monopolizing weapons in the state’s hand, which was considered a clear reference to the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Despite this reference, Hezbollah expressed positivity, and its secretary-general assured that the party was on good terms with the president and prime minister-designate, Judge Nawaf Salam, the former president of the ICJ.

As Israel continues to breach the ceasefire agreement, Sheikh Kassem said his last two speeches, “The Resistance holds the right to take any measures deemed necessary before the occupation that continues to attack and refuses to withdraw. We decide the time, nature, and means of confrontation.” 

He added that Hezbollah will not surrender and that “the banner of the Resistance will remain raised high and proud.”

The Ceasefire Deadline Approaches

Aoun’s promise sparked memories of May 7, 2008, when Lebanon was on the brink of civil war. Then-Prime Minister Fouad Sanyoura claimed that Hezbollah’s internal communications network breached Lebanese sovereignty, and he planned to dismantle it. 

Tensions in the country were at an all-time high since the civil war, as clashes broke out between Hezbollah and groups that were loyal to the U.S.

As the second deadline for the ceasefire agreement approaches on Feb. 18, the state’s stance on Israel’s ceasefire breaches are highly anticipated. 

Will the state take action? Will it remain helpless? Will Aoun’s promise to monopolize weapons in the state’s possession fall if the Americans do not fulfill their promise for Israel to withdraw from South Lebanon?

Only time will tell.